Sirius 2-3 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Malmo FF travel to Studenternas IP to take on Sirius. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Malmo FF — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sirius 1.40 PPG, Malmo FF 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Sirius in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 62% and Malmo FF 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 56% | Malmo FF 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 0.90 xG and Malmo FF 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.812 / defence 1.067 | Malmo FF attack 1.303 / defence 0.723. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.105. Malmo FF's defence strength of 0.723 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Malmo FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Sirius games / 55 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 21% | Draw 28% | Malmo FF 51%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 4.76 | Draw 3.57 | Malmo FF 1.96. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 40% | Malmo FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 21% | Draw 28% | Malmo FF 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Sirius 0.90 / Malmo FF 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.812 / def 1.067 | Malmo FF attack 1.303 / def 0.723 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Malmo FF xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Malmo FF kick off?
Sirius vs Malmo FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Sirius 2 - 3 Malmo FF.
Where is Sirius vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Malmo FF part of?
Sirius vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 21% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 51% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sirius and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Malmo FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and Malmo FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sirius's attack at 0.81x the league average against Malmo FF's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
21%
4.80
28%
3.58
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.43
1.54
Malmo FF xG
4.80
21%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
4%
22.32
21%
4.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 13.5 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sirius and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Sirius and 1.54 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sirius come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 17D 21L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Malmo FF sit at 1.96 PPG from 55 outings (31W 15D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sirius's home form reads 11W 7D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Malmo FF have taken 1.63 points per game from 27 outings (12W 8D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.07 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Malmo FF in 62%.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 17W 17D 21L in their last 55 games (1.24 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 31W 15D 9L in their last 55 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.48 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Sirius or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and Malmo FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sirius have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Sirius won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
1
Draws
5
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, Malmo FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 63%, Malmo FF 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sirius) and 63% (Malmo FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Sirius's games and 63% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Sirius's matches and 63% of Malmo FF's.
Do Sirius and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out Sirius 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Sirius 2-3 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 0.90 xG and Malmo FF 1.54 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Malmo FF outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against Malmo FF attack 1.30 / defence 0.72, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 21% | Draw 28% | Malmo FF 51%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 56%, Malmo FF 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Malmo FF's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sirius (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.