Sirius 0-3 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 28 as Sirius welcome Hammarby FF to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Sirius) versus 1.90 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Hammarby FF have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against Sirius's 0 victories.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Hammarby FF winning.
It is worth noting that Hammarby FF have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Hammarby FF trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 54% versus Hammarby FF 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 61% | Hammarby FF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.21 xG and Hammarby FF 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.232 / defence 1.065 | Hammarby FF attack 0.989 / defence 0.670. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.222. Hammarby FF's defence strength of 0.670 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Sirius games / 57 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 34% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 37%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Hammarby FF 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 70% | Hammarby FF 20%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 34% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Sirius 1.21 / Hammarby FF 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.232 / def 1.065 | Hammarby FF attack 0.989 / def 0.670 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Hammarby FF xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Sirius vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Sirius 0 - 3 Hammarby FF.
Where is Sirius vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Hammarby FF part of?
Sirius vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 34% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sirius and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
Record (6 meetings): Sirius 0W | Draws 2 | Hammarby FF 4W.
What form are Sirius and Hammarby FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sirius's attack at 1.23x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
34%
2.98
29%
3.43
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.50
1.29
Hammarby FF xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sirius and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sirius and 1.29 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 24W 10D 23L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 26W 16D 15L from 57 games, 1.65 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.44 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.50 PPG from 28 outings (13W 3D 12L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 9W 8D 11L from 28 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.47 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 24W 10D 23L in their last 57 games (1.44 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 26W 16D 15L in their last 57 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Hammarby FF away?
Sirius's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.50 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Sirius or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sirius
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Sirius 2-0 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 54%, Hammarby FF 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Sirius) and 43% (Hammarby FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 43%; Hammarby FF in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sirius's recent matches and 32% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Sirius's matches and 43% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Sirius and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Sirius 0-3 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.21 xG and Hammarby FF 1.29 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sirius fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.23 / defence 1.06 against Hammarby FF attack 0.99 / defence 0.67, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 34% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 37%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 61%, Hammarby FF 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.44 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.