Sirius 1-2 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 14 as Sirius welcome Hammarby FF to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 July 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Studenternas IP.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Sirius) versus 1.00 (Hammarby FF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sirius have won 0, Hammarby FF 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Hammarby FF trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 44% versus Hammarby FF 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 46% | Hammarby FF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.66 xG and Hammarby FF 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.035 / defence 1.125 | Hammarby FF attack 0.839 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.162. Data: 43 Sirius games / 44 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 49% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 23%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Hammarby FF 4.35. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sirius at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sirius 50% | Hammarby FF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jul 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 49% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Sirius 1.66 / Hammarby FF 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.035 / def 1.125 | Hammarby FF attack 0.839 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Sirius (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Hammarby FF xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Sirius vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 July 2023 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Sirius 1 - 2 Hammarby FF.
Where is Sirius vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Hammarby FF part of?
Sirius vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 49% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sirius and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
Record (3 meetings): Sirius 0W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 2W.
What form are Sirius and Hammarby FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sirius's attack at 1.03x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.56
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.75
1.10
Hammarby FF xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
4%
22.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sirius and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Sirius and 1.10 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 12W 13D 18L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 19W 12D 12L from 43 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hammarby FF are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sirius.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.29 PPG from 21 outings (8W 3D 10L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 5W 6D 10L from 21 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.60 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.74 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 19W 12D 12L in their last 43 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Hammarby FF away?
Sirius's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.29 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sirius or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sirius
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Sirius 2-0 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 43%, Hammarby FF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sirius) and 43% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Sirius keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 33%; Sirius have failed to score in 29% of games; Hammarby FF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sirius's recent matches and 38% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sirius's recent games and 43% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sirius and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hammarby FF defy the odds to beat Sirius 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Sirius 1-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.66 xG and Hammarby FF 1.10 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.03 / defence 1.12 against Hammarby FF attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 49% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 23%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Hammarby FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 46%, Hammarby FF 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.