Sirius vs Halmstad – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sirius at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs Halmstad encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus Halmstad in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sirius have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Halmstad (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Halmstad have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Sirius's 1.70 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Halmstad's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Sirius, 3 for Halmstad and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Sirius winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Halmstad — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 71% versus Halmstad 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 74% | Halmstad 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.76 xG and Halmstad 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.080 / defence 1.199 | Halmstad attack 0.696 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Data: 49 Sirius games / 49 Halmstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 52% | Draw 25% | Halmstad 23%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Halmstad 4.35. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 60% | Halmstad 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Halmstad | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 52% | Draw 25% | Halmstad 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Sirius 1.76 / Halmstad 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.080 / def 1.199 | Halmstad attack 0.696 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Sirius (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Halmstad xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Halmstad kick off?
Sirius vs Halmstad is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Studenternas IP.
Where is Sirius vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Halmstad part of?
Sirius vs Halmstad is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 52% chance of winning, Halmstad a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sirius and Halmstad will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Halmstad?
Record (9 meetings): Sirius 4W | Draws 2 | Halmstad 3W.
What form are Sirius and Halmstad in?
Sirius (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Halmstad (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sirius's attack at 1.08x the league average against Halmstad's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Halmstad's attack (0.70x) against Sirius's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
52%
1.92
25%
3.94
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.85
1.09
Halmstad xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
4%
25.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Halmstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sirius and Halmstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Sirius and 1.09 for Halmstad, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Halmstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sirius come into this having played 49 games, going 24W 9D 16L for 1.65 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Halmstad sit at 0.94 PPG from 49 outings (12W 10D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Halmstad — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sirius's home form reads 13W 4D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Halmstad have taken 0.83 points per game from 24 outings (5W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sirius are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Halmstad are on 0.76 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Halmstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Halmstad in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 24W 9D 16L in their last 49 games (1.65 PPG), while Halmstad have gone 12W 10D 27L in their last 49 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Halmstad away?
Sirius's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.79 PPG; Halmstad away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 3 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Sirius go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Halmstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Sirius
2
Draws
3
Halmstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Halmstad?
From 9 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, Halmstad have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Halmstad last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2026, when Halmstad 0-2 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Halmstad?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 62%, Halmstad 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Sirius) and 42% (Halmstad). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 8% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Halmstad in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Halmstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Halmstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Sirius's recent matches and 42% of Halmstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sirius vs Halmstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sirius's matches and 42% of Halmstad's.
Do Sirius and Halmstad tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Halmstad in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.