Sirius 2-2 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees BK Hacken travel to Studenternas IP to take on Sirius. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 June 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 0.72 xG and BK Hacken 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.798 / defence 1.259 | BK Hacken attack 0.784 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 0.762 / away 1.474. Sirius's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Sirius games / 2 BK Hacken games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sirius 15% | Draw 34% | BK Hacken 51%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 6.67 | Draw 2.94 | BK Hacken 1.96. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 22 Jun 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 15% | Draw 34% | BK Hacken 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Sirius 0.72 / BK Hacken 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.798 / def 1.259 | BK Hacken attack 0.784 / def 1.193 | league avg home 0.762 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.46
BK Hacken xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs BK Hacken kick off?
Sirius vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 22 June 2020 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Sirius 2 - 2 BK Hacken.
Where is Sirius vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs BK Hacken part of?
Sirius vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 15% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 51% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sirius and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and BK Hacken in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sirius's attack rating (0.80) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 0.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
15%
6.64
34%
2.95
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.18
1.46
BK Hacken xG
6.64
15%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
48%
2.06
Win to Nil
4%
28.45
25%
4.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 16.4 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sirius and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Sirius and 1.46 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Pre-Season
BK Hacken
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and BK Hacken runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2021, when Sirius won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sirius
2
Draws
6
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 2, BK Hacken have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when BK Hacken 2-2 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Sirius and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius and BK Hacken finished level at 2-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 0.72 xG and BK Hacken 1.46 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.80 / defence 1.26 against BK Hacken attack 0.78 / defence 1.19, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 15% | Draw 34% | BK Hacken 51%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.