Ostersunds FK 0-0 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Helsingborg travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 July 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ostersunds FK — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 0W 1D 4L from 5 Allsvenskan appearances (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.20 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jämtkraft Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Helsingborg have posted 0W 3D 2L from 5 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ostersunds FK 0.90 PPG, Helsingborg 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ostersunds FK register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Helsingborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 40% versus Helsingborg 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ostersunds FK 40% | Helsingborg 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.25 xG and Helsingborg 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.818 / defence 1.516 | Helsingborg attack 0.807 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.214. Helsingborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Ostersunds FK games / 10 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 32% | Draw 25% | Helsingborg 43%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Helsingborg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 60% | Helsingborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 32% | Draw 25% | Helsingborg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.25 / Helsingborg 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.818 / def 1.516 | Helsingborg attack 0.807 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Helsingborg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 July 2020 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 0 Helsingborg.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 32% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Helsingborg (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Helsingborg's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
32%
3.12
25%
3.94
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.74
1.49
Helsingborg xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
23%
4.41
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
7%
13.79
12%
8.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.49 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 2W 3D 5L from 10 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg, meanwhile, have gone 1W 5D 4L across 10 games — 0.80 PPG, with D-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ostersunds FK on 0.90 PPG, Helsingborg on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — 0.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.90 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Helsingborg's away record stands at 0W 3D 2L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 0.80 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 games (0.90 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Helsingborg away?
Helsingborg's away record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.20 PPG; Helsingborg away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Ostersunds FK
4
Draws
2
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg?
From 9 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 3, Helsingborg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Helsingborg 2-1 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 60%, Helsingborg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Ostersunds FK and 60% for Helsingborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 40% of games; Helsingborg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Helsingborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ostersunds FK's games and 60% of Helsingborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 60% of Helsingborg's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ostersunds FK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK and Helsingborg finished level at 0-0 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.25 xG and Helsingborg 1.49 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ostersunds FK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Helsingborg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.82 / defence 1.52 against Helsingborg attack 0.81 / defence 1.38, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 32% | Draw 25% | Helsingborg 43%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 40%, Helsingborg 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Helsingborg's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 0.90 PPG, Helsingborg 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.