Ostersunds FK 0-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 47%, yet in-form Degerfors IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF meet at Jämtkraft Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Ostersunds FK (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 1W 2D 7L at Jämtkraft Arena — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Degerfors IF have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Degerfors IF are 1.10 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (1.30 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ostersunds FK lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2021, ended 1–3 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 38% versus Degerfors IF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 59% | Degerfors IF 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.49 xG and Degerfors IF 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.771 / defence 1.257 | Degerfors IF attack 0.723 / defence 1.284. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.165. Ostersunds FK's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.49 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.284 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Ostersunds FK games / 29 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 47% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 27%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Degerfors IF 3.70. Ostersunds FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ostersunds FK as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Degerfors IF (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 50% | Degerfors IF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 47% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.49 / Degerfors IF 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.771 / def 1.257 | Degerfors IF attack 0.723 / def 1.284 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Degerfors IF xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF?
Ostersunds FK 0 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 47% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.77x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.72x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.85
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.55
1.06
Degerfors IF xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
6%
16.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.06 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 3W 5D 21L from 29 games, a 0.48 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 16L across 29 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Degerfors IF by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ostersunds FK heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 3W 2D 9L from 14 games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 2W 3D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Degerfors IF's season.
Attack vs Defence
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.14 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 3W 5D 21L in their last 29 games (0.48 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 9W 4D 16L in their last 29 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Degerfors IF away?
Ostersunds FK's home record (0.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.79 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Ostersunds FK
0
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 1, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2024, when Degerfors IF 2-0 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 50%, Degerfors IF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Ostersunds FK) and 50% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 36% of games; Degerfors IF in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 43% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 50% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Degerfors IF defy the odds to beat Ostersunds FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Ostersunds FK 0-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.49 xG and Degerfors IF 1.06 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ostersunds FK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.77 / defence 1.26 against Degerfors IF attack 0.72 / defence 1.28, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 47% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 27%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Degerfors IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 59%, Degerfors IF 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Degerfors IF arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.