Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Hammarby FF travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 September 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orgryte IS — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 2W 5D 3L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hammarby FF are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Hammarby FF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Orgryte IS, 1 for Hammarby FF and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 9.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 1–8 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 9.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 49% versus Hammarby FF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | Hammarby FF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.58 xG and Hammarby FF 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.035 / defence 1.340 | Hammarby FF attack 1.193 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Data: 19 Orgryte IS games / 49 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 29% | Draw 22% | Hammarby FF 49%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | Hammarby FF 2.04. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.67 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 80% | Hammarby FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 29% | Draw 22% | Hammarby FF 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Orgryte IS 1.58 / Hammarby FF 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.035 / def 1.340 | Hammarby FF attack 1.193 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.596 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Hammarby FF xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 September 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 29% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Orgryte IS and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Hammarby FF?
Record (1 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 0 | Hammarby FF 1W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Hammarby FF in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.03x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 2.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
29%
3.51
22%
4.45
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
3.67
2.09
Hammarby FF xG
3.51
29%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
12%
8.12
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
4%
28.46
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 2.09 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orgryte IS's recent record stands at 19W 13D 17L from 49 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF, meanwhile, have gone 30W 8D 11L across 49 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Orgryte IS heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orgryte IS have managed 10W 8D 6L from 24 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hammarby FF's away record stands at 10W 6D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
The Goals Picture
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 2.12 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 19W 13D 17L in their last 49 games (1.43 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 30W 8D 11L in their last 49 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Hammarby FF away?
Orgryte IS's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.58 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Orgryte IS or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orgryte IS have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orgryte IS and Hammarby FF runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
1
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Hammarby FF?
From 1 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 0, Hammarby FF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 8-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 50%, Hammarby FF 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Orgryte IS) and 50% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Orgryte IS's recent matches and 58% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orgryte IS vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Orgryte IS's recent games and 50% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orgryte IS and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.