Orgryte IS 0-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Djurgardens IF encounter.

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Full Analysis

Gamla Ullevi plays host to Orgryte IS versus Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Monday 20 July 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Orgryte IS have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Gamla Ullevi, Orgryte IS have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Orgryte IS are significantly better at Gamla Ullevi than their overall form suggests.

Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Djurgardens IF away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On a straight form reading, Djurgardens IF are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Orgryte IS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Djurgardens IF in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading Data

Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 51% versus Djurgardens IF 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 56% | Djurgardens IF 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.73 xG and Djurgardens IF 2.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.059 / defence 1.383 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.390 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.700 / away 1.395. Djurgardens IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.390 — the away xG of 2.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 12 Orgryte IS games / 41 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 23% | Draw 19% | Djurgardens IF 57%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 4.35 | Draw 5.26 | Djurgardens IF 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 82% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 82% — a total xG of 4.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 2.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 4.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 82% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 77% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orgryte IS 60% | Djurgardens IF 70% BTTS from recent games.

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