Orebro SK 1-2 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Malmo FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orebro SK and Malmo FF meet at Behrn Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Monday 24 May 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Orebro SK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Orebro SK's home record at Behrn Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Malmo FF have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Malmo FF's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Orebro SK have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Malmo FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Orebro SK lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2020, ended 3–2 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Orebro SK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 53% versus Malmo FF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 57% | Malmo FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.16 xG and Malmo FF 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.783 / defence 1.033 | Malmo FF attack 1.159 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.095. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 37 Orebro SK games / 38 Malmo FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 30% | Draw 32% | Malmo FF 38%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Malmo FF 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Malmo FF as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Malmo FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 80% | Malmo FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 30% | Draw 32% | Malmo FF 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Orebro SK 1.16 / Malmo FF 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.783 / def 1.033 | Malmo FF attack 1.159 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Malmo FF xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Malmo FF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Malmo FF kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 24 May 2021 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Malmo FF?
Orebro SK 1 - 2 Malmo FF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Malmo FF part of?
Orebro SK vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 30% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Orebro SK and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Malmo FF?
Record (2 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 0 | Malmo FF 1W.
What form are Orebro SK and Malmo FF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (1.16x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
30%
3.29
32%
3.13
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.47
1.31
Malmo FF xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.21
12%
8.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.31 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 12W 6D 12L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Malmo FF's form line: 17W 9D 4L from 30 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Malmo FF are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (8W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 6W 5D 4L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Malmo FF's season.
Attack vs Defence
Orebro SK are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.13 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF in 60%.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 17W 9D 4L in their last 30 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Malmo FF away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.80 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Malmo FF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Malmo FF won 5-1 on 25 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Malmo FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
0
Draws
3
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Malmo FF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Malmo FF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2021, when Malmo FF 5-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 60%, Malmo FF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Orebro SK and 67% for Malmo FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Malmo FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Orebro SK's games and 67% of Malmo FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Orebro SK's matches and 67% of Malmo FF's.
Do Orebro SK and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out Orebro SK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Orebro SK 1-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.16 xG and Malmo FF 1.31 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.78 / defence 1.03 against Malmo FF attack 1.16 / defence 1.06, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 30% | Draw 32% | Malmo FF 38%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 57%, Malmo FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Malmo FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.