Orebro SK 0-0 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 1 as Orebro SK welcome IFK Goteborg to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 April 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Orebro SK — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Orebro SK at Behrn Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Orebro SK) versus 1.40 (IFK Goteborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Orebro SK, 0 for IFK Goteborg and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2020, ended 1–0 with Orebro SK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 53% versus IFK Goteborg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 57% | IFK Goteborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.46 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.025 / defence 1.008 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.016 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.370. Data: 30 Orebro SK games / 30 IFK Goteborg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 38% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 36%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Goteborg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 80% | IFK Goteborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 38% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Orebro SK 1.46 / IFK Goteborg 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.025 / def 1.008 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.016 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.40
IFK Goteborg xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 10 April 2021 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg?
Orebro SK 0 - 0 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 38% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg?
Record (2 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 1 | IFK Goteborg 0W.
What form are Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Orebro SK's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against IFK Goteborg's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
38%
2.63
26%
3.81
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.86
1.40
IFK Goteborg xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
9%
10.71
8%
11.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.40 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 12W 6D 12L from 30 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 7W 13D 10L across 30 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.40 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 8W 3D 4L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 4W 8D 3L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.17 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 12W 6D 12L in their last 30 games (1.40 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 7W 13D 10L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.80 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Orebro SK's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
2
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2021, when IFK Goteborg 2-0 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 60%, IFK Goteborg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Orebro SK) and 47% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg in 33%; Orebro SK have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Orebro SK's games and 60% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Orebro SK's recent games and 47% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Orebro SK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg finished level at 0-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.46 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.40 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 1.5 short of their projected output. IFK Goteborg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.02 / defence 1.01 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.02 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 38% | Draw 26% | IFK Goteborg 36%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 57%, IFK Goteborg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.40 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.