Orebro SK 1-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 14 as Orebro SK welcome IFK Goteborg to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 August 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Orebro SK — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK at Behrn Arena this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Behrn Arena.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 1L across 5 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Orebro SK) versus 0.90 (IFK Goteborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 46% versus IFK Goteborg 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 46% | IFK Goteborg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 0.95 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.786 / defence 1.021 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.867 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.286. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Orebro SK games / 13 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 28% | Draw 34% | IFK Goteborg 38%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | IFK Goteborg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Goteborg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 33% | IFK Goteborg 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 28% | Draw 34% | IFK Goteborg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Orebro SK 0.95 / IFK Goteborg 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.786 / def 1.021 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.867 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.14
IFK Goteborg xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 9 August 2020 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg?
Orebro SK 1 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 28% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against IFK Goteborg's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
28%
3.55
34%
2.94
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.09
1.14
IFK Goteborg xG
3.55
28%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
15%
6.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.1 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.14 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 4W 4D 5L from 13 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 2W 7D 4L across 13 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orebro SK on 1.23 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 1W 3D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.15 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Goteborg in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 7D 4L in their last 13 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.60 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Orebro SK's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
2
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2021, when IFK Goteborg 2-0 Orebro SK.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 40%, IFK Goteborg 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Orebro SK) and 60% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Orebro SK's games and 80% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Orebro SK's recent games and 60% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 14, as Orebro SK and IFK Goteborg drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.95 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.79 / defence 1.02 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.87 / defence 1.09, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 28% | Draw 34% | IFK Goteborg 38%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 46%, IFK Goteborg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orebro SK 1.23 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.