Orebro SK 0-3 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Orebro SK take on Djurgardens IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Djurgardens IF travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 August 2020, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Orebro SK have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orebro SK have posted 2W 3D 2L at Behrn Arena — 1.29 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 0D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Djurgardens IF are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Orebro SK have won 1, Djurgardens IF 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Jun 2020, ended 2–1 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 14% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Djurgardens IF in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 53% versus Djurgardens IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 47% | Djurgardens IF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 0.82 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.771 / defence 0.990 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.714 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.334. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Orebro SK games / 15 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 28% | Draw 36% | Djurgardens IF 35%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | Djurgardens IF 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.76 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 43% | Djurgardens IF 29% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2020, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 28% | Draw 36% | Djurgardens IF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Orebro SK 0.82 / Djurgardens IF 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.771 / def 0.990 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.714 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Djurgardens IF xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 August 2020 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF?
Orebro SK 0 - 3 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 28% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF?
Record (1 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 0W.
What form are Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.77x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.51
36%
2.76
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
1.76
0.94
Djurgardens IF xG
3.51
28%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
16%
6.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 16.2 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.94 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orebro SK come into this having played 15 games, going 4W 5D 6L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.73 PPG from 15 outings (8W 2D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Orebro SK's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.71 points per game from 7 outings (4W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.47 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 games (1.13 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 8W 2D 5L in their last 15 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.29 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Orebro SK or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Orebro SK have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Djurgardens IF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Aug 2020, when Djurgardens IF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
0
Draws
3
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Djurgardens IF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when Orebro SK 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK tend to start slowly — only 14% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 43%, Djurgardens IF 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Orebro SK) and 43% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Orebro SK have failed to score in 43% of games; Djurgardens IF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 29% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Orebro SK's recent games and 43% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 14% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Djurgardens IF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Orebro SK 0-3 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 0.82 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.94 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Djurgardens IF outscored their 0.94 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.77 / defence 0.99 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.71 / defence 0.95, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 28% | Draw 36% | Djurgardens IF 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 47%, Djurgardens IF 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.