Mjallby AIF 0-2 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Orgryte IS meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Mjallby AIF (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.20 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Mjallby AIF at Strandvallen this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen.
Orgryte IS have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Orgryte IS have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Orgryte IS's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Mjallby AIF. A 0.90 PPG lead over Orgryte IS (2.80 vs 1.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Orgryte IS half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 53% versus Orgryte IS 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 41% | Orgryte IS 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.61 xG and Orgryte IS 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.034 / defence 0.903 | Orgryte IS attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.293. Data: 31 Mjallby AIF games / 1 Orgryte IS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 52% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 23%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Orgryte IS 4.35. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 50% | Orgryte IS 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 52% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.61 / Orgryte IS 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.034 / def 0.903 | Orgryte IS attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Orgryte IS xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Orgryte IS?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 2 Orgryte IS.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Orgryte IS part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 52% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Orgryte IS in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 1.03x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.85x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.01
23%
4.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.60
0.99
Orgryte IS xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.28
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
5%
21.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.99 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 24W 7D 1L from 32 games, a 2.47 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Orgryte IS, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 10L across 32 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Orgryte IS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Orgryte IS heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 12W 4D 0L from 16 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orgryte IS's away record stands at 5W 6D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.59 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.66 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 66%.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Orgryte IS
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 24W 7D 1L in their last 32 games (2.47 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 13W 9D 10L in their last 32 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Orgryte IS away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.50 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Mjallby AIF
0
Draws
1
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Orgryte IS?
From 1 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 0, Orgryte IS have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Orgryte IS?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 50%, Orgryte IS 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Mjallby AIF and 38% for Orgryte IS.
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Orgryte IS in 31%; Orgryte IS in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 56% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 38% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mjallby AIF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Mjallby AIF 0-2 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.61 xG and Orgryte IS 0.99 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Orgryte IS outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.03 / defence 0.90 against Orgryte IS attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 52% | Draw 25% | Orgryte IS 23%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Orgryte IS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 41%, Orgryte IS 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Orgryte IS winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.