Mjallby AIF 1-1 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 74%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees IFK Varnamo travel to Strandvallen to take on Mjallby AIF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 May 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Mjallby AIF at Strandvallen this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 2.27 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.188 / defence 0.825 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.760 / defence 1.471. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.041. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.471 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Mjallby AIF games / 7 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 74% | Draw 17% | IFK Varnamo 9%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 1.35 | Draw 5.88 | IFK Varnamo 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Mjallby AIF (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 74% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 74% | Draw 17% | IFK Varnamo 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 43% | xG Mjallby AIF 2.27 / IFK Varnamo 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.188 / def 0.825 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.760 / def 1.471 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.65
IFK Varnamo xG
43%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 74% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Mjallby AIF home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.27. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 3-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
74%
1.35
17%
5.95
9%
11.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
3 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.93
0.65
IFK Varnamo xG
1.35
74%
Home win
5.95
17%
Draw
11.03
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
52%
1.92
10%
9.71
Win to Nil
39%
2.59
1%
107.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 8.0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.65 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Pre-Season
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mjallby AIF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2025, when Mjallby AIF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2025, when IFK Varnamo 0-5 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 8, as Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 2.27 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.65 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.19 / defence 0.82 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.76 / defence 1.47, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 74% | Draw 17% | IFK Varnamo 9%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.