Mjallby AIF 1-1 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees IFK Varnamo travel to Strandvallen to take on Mjallby AIF. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 25 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF at Strandvallen this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Varnamo have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Mjallby AIF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Mjallby AIF, 2 for IFK Varnamo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 2–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 49% versus IFK Varnamo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 51% | IFK Varnamo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.57 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.152 / defence 0.942 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.817 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.301. Data: 53 Mjallby AIF games / 53 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 50% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 24%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | IFK Varnamo 4.17. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 90% | IFK Varnamo 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 50% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.57 / IFK Varnamo 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.152 / def 0.942 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.817 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.00
IFK Varnamo xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 25 September 2024 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 50% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo?
Record (5 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 1 | IFK Varnamo 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
50%
1.98
25%
3.95
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.57
1.00
IFK Varnamo xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
5%
19.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.00 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 23W 10D 20L from 53 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 25L across 53 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.49 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 11W 6D 9L from 26 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 12W 4D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.17 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 10D 20L in their last 53 games (1.49 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 20W 8D 25L in their last 53 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IFK Varnamo away?
IFK Varnamo's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.50 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mjallby AIF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Nov 2025, when Mjallby AIF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Varnamo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2025, when IFK Varnamo 0-5 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 58%, IFK Varnamo 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Mjallby AIF) and 50% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 46% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 50% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF and IFK Varnamo finished level at 1-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.57 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.00 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.15 / defence 0.94 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.82 / defence 0.88, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 50% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 24%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 51%, IFK Varnamo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.49 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.