Mjallby AIF 0-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 11 July 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
IFK Norrkoping's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Mjallby AIF, 1.40 for IFK Norrkoping — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjallby AIF 59% and IFK Norrkoping 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 51% | IFK Norrkoping 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.17 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.867 / defence 0.823 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.992 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.054. Data: 39 Mjallby AIF games / 39 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 40% | Draw 35% | IFK Norrkoping 25%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | IFK Norrkoping 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 40% | IFK Norrkoping 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 40% | Draw 35% | IFK Norrkoping 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.17 / IFK Norrkoping 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.867 / def 0.823 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.992 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.86
IFK Norrkoping xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 July 2021 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 40% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against IFK Norrkoping's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.99x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
40%
2.47
35%
2.87
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.03
0.86
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.47
40%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 11.3 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.86 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 15W 12D 12L from 39 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping, meanwhile, have gone 17W 9D 13L across 39 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.54 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 10W 6D 3L from 19 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Mjallby AIF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Norrkoping's away record stands at 8W 2D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.87 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 72%.
Last 39 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 15W 12D 12L in their last 39 games (1.46 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 17W 9D 13L in their last 39 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.89 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
4
Draws
2
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Mjallby AIF 2-1 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 58%, IFK Norrkoping 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Mjallby AIF and 68% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Mjallby AIF's games and 68% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 68% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Norrkoping defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Mjallby AIF 0-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.17 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.86 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.87 / defence 0.82 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.99 / defence 0.91, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 40% | Draw 35% | IFK Norrkoping 25%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a IFK Norrkoping win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 51%, IFK Norrkoping 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.46 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.