Mjallby AIF 1-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 August 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 8W 2D 0L at Strandvallen — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Mjallby AIF's favour (2.60 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Mjallby AIF, 3 for Djurgardens IF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2025, ended 3–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 67% versus Djurgardens IF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 57% | Djurgardens IF 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.28 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.148 / defence 0.665 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.952 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.340. Mjallby AIF's defence rating of 0.665 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Mjallby AIF games / 49 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 24%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Djurgardens IF 4.17. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 50% | Djurgardens IF 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.28 / Djurgardens IF 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.148 / def 0.665 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.952 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Djurgardens IF xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 46% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (7 meetings): Mjallby AIF 3W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 3W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.95x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.40
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.13
0.85
Djurgardens IF xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
7%
14.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.1 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 0.85 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 49 games, going 28W 12D 9L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.63 PPG from 49 outings (23W 11D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.96 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.63 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 16W 7D 1L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.58 points per game from 24 outings (12W 2D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.37 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 28W 12D 9L in their last 49 games (1.96 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 23W 11D 15L in their last 49 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.29 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 4-0 on 31 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
5
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-2 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 71%, Djurgardens IF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjallby AIF) and 50% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 38% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 50% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 20, as Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.28 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.85 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.15 / defence 0.67 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.95 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 24%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 57%, Djurgardens IF 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.96 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.