Mjallby AIF 0-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 39%, yet in-form Djurgardens IF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan (matchday 17). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Mjallby AIF have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Djurgardens IF have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Djurgardens IF's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Djurgardens IF are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Mjallby AIF, 1 for Djurgardens IF and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 21 May 2023, ended Mjallby AIF 0–2 Djurgardens IF — a Djurgardens IF win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 46% versus Djurgardens IF 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 37% | Djurgardens IF 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Mjallby AIF surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Djurgardens IF have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.34 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.857 / defence 0.932 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.011 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.264. Data: built from Mjallby AIF's last 46 games and Djurgardens IF's last 47.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 39% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 32%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.55 | Draw 3.48 | Djurgardens IF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjallby AIF are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Djurgardens IF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mjallby AIF 50% (last 10 home games) | Djurgardens IF 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 17 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 30 July 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 39% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Mjallby AIF 1.34 / Djurgardens IF 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.857 / def 0.932 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.011 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Djurgardens IF xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF FAQs
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 17) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 39% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.01x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Mjallby AIF's last 46 games and Djurgardens IF's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.48
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.53
1.19
Djurgardens IF xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.19 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 46 games, going 17W 14D 15L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.83 PPG from 46 outings (25W 9D 12L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 6W 9D 7L across their last 22 home games, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.27 points per game from their last 22 away games (7W 7D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's recent record.
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Mjallby AIF (Home) vs Djurgardens IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF Form FAQs
What form are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 17W 14D 15L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 25W 9D 12L in their last 46 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.23 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF, the earliest from April 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 3 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won Djurgardens IF 4-0 Mjallby AIF on 31 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
5
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Mjallby AIF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 September 2026: Mjallby AIF 0-2 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 68%, Djurgardens IF 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mjallby AIF) and 41% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 32%; Djurgardens IF in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Mjallby AIF's games and 46% of Djurgardens IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 41% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 64% of Djurgardens IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Djurgardens IF defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Mjallby AIF 0-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.34 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.19 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.01 / defence 1.10, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 39% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 32%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Djurgardens IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 37%, Djurgardens IF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.41. That form edge translated into the three points. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.