Malmo FF 3-0 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Malmo FF at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AIK Stockholm make the trip to Eleda Stadion to face Malmo FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Malmo FF (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Malmo FF at Eleda Stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Eleda Stadion this season.
AIK Stockholm's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Malmo FF, 1.80 for AIK Stockholm — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Malmo FF 1W, AIK Stockholm 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Malmo FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Malmo FF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
AIK Stockholm — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 60% versus AIK Stockholm 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 62% | AIK Stockholm 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.60 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.021 / defence 0.929 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.074 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.213. AIK Stockholm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Malmo FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Malmo FF games / 32 AIK Stockholm games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 46% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 29%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | AIK Stockholm 3.45. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Malmo FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Malmo FF 50% | AIK Stockholm 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 46% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Malmo FF 1.60 / AIK Stockholm 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.021 / def 0.929 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.074 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
1.21
AIK Stockholm xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Malmo FF 3 - 0 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 46% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (1 meetings): Malmo FF 1W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 0W.
What form are Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 1.02x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (1.07x) against Malmo FF's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
46%
2.16
25%
4.05
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.81
1.21
AIK Stockholm xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
6%
17.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Malmo FF and 1.21 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Malmo FF come into this having played 60 games, going 34W 17D 9L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.63 PPG from 60 outings (28W 14D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for Malmo FF against 1.63 for AIK Stockholm. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Malmo FF's home form reads 19W 9D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (9W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Malmo FF are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.25 scored and 0.97 conceded. Malmo FF's scoring rate against AIK Stockholm's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; AIK Stockholm in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 34W 17D 9L in their last 60 games (1.98 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.20 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Malmo FF won 5-0 on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Malmo FF have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Malmo FF
4
Draws
1
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 5, AIK Stockholm have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when AIK Stockholm 0-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 60%, AIK Stockholm 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Malmo FF) and 37% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Malmo FF's recent matches and 43% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Malmo FF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Malmo FF's recent games and 37% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Malmo FF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Malmo FF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AIK Stockholm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat AIK Stockholm 3-0 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.60 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.21 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Malmo FF beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AIK Stockholm landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.07 / defence 1.21, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 46% | Draw 25% | AIK Stockholm 29%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 62%, AIK Stockholm 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Malmo FF 1.98 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Malmo FF win broke the near-deadlock. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.