Kalmar FF 1-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kalmar FF at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Thursday 20 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Kalmar FF (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kalmar FF have posted 8W 2D 0L at Guldfågeln Arena — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guldfågeln Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Mjallby AIF have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Kalmar FF. A 1.50 PPG lead over Mjallby AIF (2.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Kalmar FF have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Mjallby AIF in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kalmar FF lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 48% versus Mjallby AIF 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kalmar FF 39% | Mjallby AIF 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.02 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.870 / defence 0.583 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.804 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.201. Kalmar FF's defence rating of 0.583 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Kalmar FF games / 56 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 44% | Draw 38% | Mjallby AIF 18%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.27 | Draw 2.63 | Mjallby AIF 5.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.58. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.58 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Mjallby AIF's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kalmar FF are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.58 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 29%. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 20% | Mjallby AIF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 44% | Draw 38% | Mjallby AIF 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 29% | xG Kalmar FF 1.02 / Mjallby AIF 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.870 / def 0.583 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.804 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Mjallby AIF xG
29%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 20 October 2022 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Kalmar FF 1 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 44% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 18% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (4 meetings): Kalmar FF 1W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 2W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.80x) against Kalmar FF's defence (0.58x) — and the away total comes out at 0.56.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (19.4%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 55% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
44%
2.27
38%
2.64
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
21.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
20.6%
Draw
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
1.58
0.56
Mjallby AIF xG
2.27
44%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.40
71%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
57%
1.75
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
7%
15.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.6 | 11.6 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.0 | 11.8 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.1%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 0.56 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 1.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 27W 13D 16L from 56 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 17W 21D 18L across 56 games — 1.29 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.29 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 15W 7D 6L from 28 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 8W 10D 10L across 28 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.05 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Mjallby AIF in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 27W 13D 16L in their last 56 games (1.68 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 17W 21D 18L in their last 56 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.86 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
6
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 36% (Kalmar FF) and 32% (Mjallby AIF) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Kalmar FF and 29% for Mjallby AIF.
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 43%; Mjallby AIF in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 32% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 29% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat Kalmar FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Kalmar FF 1-2 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.02 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.56 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mjallby AIF outscored their 0.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.87 / defence 0.58 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.80 / defence 0.81, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 44% | Draw 38% | Mjallby AIF 18%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Mjallby AIF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 39%, Mjallby AIF 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.68 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.