Kalmar FF 0-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Hammarby FF travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 August 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kalmar FF — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Guldfågeln Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Kalmar FF are significantly better at Guldfågeln Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hammarby FF are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Kalmar FF, 3 for Hammarby FF and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2023, ended 1–3 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 47% versus Hammarby FF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 41% | Hammarby FF 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.38 xG and Hammarby FF 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.941 / defence 1.052 | Hammarby FF attack 0.812 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.209. Data: 49 Kalmar FF games / 49 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 45% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 28%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Hammarby FF 3.57. Kalmar FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kalmar FF are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hammarby FF (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 50% | Hammarby FF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 45% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Kalmar FF 1.38 / Hammarby FF 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.941 / def 1.052 | Hammarby FF attack 0.812 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Hammarby FF xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Kalmar FF 0 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 45% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF?
Record (6 meetings): Kalmar FF 2W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 3W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kalmar FF's attack rating (0.94) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.69
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.41
1.03
Hammarby FF xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
16%
6.26
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.03 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kalmar FF come into this having played 49 games, going 22W 11D 16L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.71 PPG from 49 outings (24W 12D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 1.57 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kalmar FF's home form reads 15W 4D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Kalmar FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (7W 6D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.73 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Hammarby FF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 22W 11D 16L in their last 49 games (1.57 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 24W 12D 13L in their last 49 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Kalmar FF's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 2.04 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hammarby FF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2024, when Hammarby FF won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 2-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 38%, Hammarby FF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Kalmar FF) and 42% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 33%; Hammarby FF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 38% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 42% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kalmar FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 20, as Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.38 xG and Hammarby FF 1.03 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kalmar FF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.94 / defence 1.05 against Hammarby FF attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 45% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 28%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 41%, Hammarby FF 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.57 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.