Kalmar FF 2-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kalmar FF at 79% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Saturday 10 June 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Guldfågeln Arena this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guldfågeln Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Degerfors IF (all games): 3W 7D 0L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Degerfors IF have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Kalmar FF 3W, Degerfors IF 1W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Degerfors IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 48% versus Degerfors IF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 42% | Degerfors IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 2.92 xG and Degerfors IF 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 1.062 / defence 1.025 | Degerfors IF attack 0.723 / defence 1.779. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.123. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.779 — this is suppressing Kalmar FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Kalmar FF games / 42 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 79% | Draw 14% | Degerfors IF 7%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 1.27 | Draw 7.14 | Degerfors IF 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Kalmar FF (79%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 72% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 79% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 30% | Degerfors IF 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jun 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 79% | Draw 14% | Degerfors IF 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 54% | xG Kalmar FF 2.92 / Degerfors IF 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 1.062 / def 1.025 | Degerfors IF attack 0.723 / def 1.779 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.92
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Degerfors IF xG
54%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 June 2023 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF?
Kalmar FF 2 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 79% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 7% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF?
Record (4 meetings): Kalmar FF 3W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 1W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kalmar FF's attack rating (1.06) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.78), the model arrives at 2.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.72x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
79%
1.27
14%
7.07
7%
14.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.92
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
3.75
0.83
Degerfors IF xG
1.27
79%
Home win
7.07
14%
Draw
14.43
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
5%
18.54
Win to Nil
34%
2.91
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.92 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 0.83 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kalmar FF come into this having played 60 games, going 28W 14D 18L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.08 PPG from 60 outings (17W 14D 29L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five.
Kalmar FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Kalmar FF's home form reads 16W 7D 7L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.73 points per game from 30 outings (5W 7D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.10 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.83 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Kalmar FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kalmar FF won 4-1 on 12 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Kalmar FF
0
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF?
From 7 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 6, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 37%, Degerfors IF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Kalmar FF) and 50% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 53% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 50% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kalmar FF edge out Degerfors IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Degerfors IF 2-1 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 2.92 xG and Degerfors IF 0.83 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Kalmar FF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.06 / defence 1.02 against Degerfors IF attack 0.72 / defence 1.78, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 79% | Draw 14% | Degerfors IF 7%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 79%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 42%, Degerfors IF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kalmar FF arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.