Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees AIK Stockholm travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guldfågeln Arena, Kalmar FF have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Kalmar FF are significantly better at Guldfågeln Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. AIK Stockholm's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Kalmar FF's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Kalmar FF, 4 for AIK Stockholm and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 10 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 42% versus AIK Stockholm 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 45% | AIK Stockholm 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.04 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.787 / defence 1.389 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.098 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.296. Kalmar FF's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Kalmar FF games / 54 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 19% | Draw 21% | AIK Stockholm 59%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 5.26 | Draw 4.76 | AIK Stockholm 1.69. The model has a clear lean to AIK Stockholm (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 50% | AIK Stockholm 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 19% | Draw 21% | AIK Stockholm 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Kalmar FF 1.04 / AIK Stockholm 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.787 / def 1.389 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.098 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.98
AIK Stockholm xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Guldfågeln Arena.
Where is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 19% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (10 meetings): Kalmar FF 3W | Draws 3 | AIK Stockholm 4W.
What form are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.79x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
19%
5.18
21%
4.66
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
3.01
1.98
AIK Stockholm xG
5.18
19%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
14%
7.21
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
3%
37.36
21%
4.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.98 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kalmar FF come into this having played 53 games, going 23W 14D 16L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.49 PPG from 53 outings (21W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 1.57 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kalmar FF's home form reads 17W 3D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Kalmar FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.46 points per game from 26 outings (10W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.45 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 23W 14D 16L in their last 53 games (1.57 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 21W 16D 16L in their last 53 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Kalmar FF's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 2.08 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kalmar FF
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when AIK Stockholm 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 46%, AIK Stockholm 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Kalmar FF) and 58% (AIK Stockholm). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Kalmar FF's games and 65% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Kalmar FF's matches and 58% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.