Kalmar FF 1-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees AIK Stockholm travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 August 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Guldfågeln Arena, Kalmar FF have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Kalmar FF are significantly better at Guldfågeln Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Kalmar FF) versus 1.20 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Kalmar FF, 2 for AIK Stockholm and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Jun 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 47% versus AIK Stockholm 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 40% | AIK Stockholm 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.12 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.939 / defence 1.038 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.870 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.245. Data: 47 Kalmar FF games / 47 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 35% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 36%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | AIK Stockholm 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AIK Stockholm at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 50% | AIK Stockholm 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 35% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Kalmar FF 1.12 / AIK Stockholm 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.939 / def 1.038 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.870 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.12
AIK Stockholm xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Kalmar FF 1 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 35% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (6 meetings): Kalmar FF 2W | Draws 2 | AIK Stockholm 2W.
What form are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 0.94x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
35%
2.82
29%
3.47
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.24
1.12
AIK Stockholm xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.12 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kalmar FF come into this having played 47 games, going 22W 10D 15L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.43 PPG from 47 outings (18W 13D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 1.62 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kalmar FF's home form reads 15W 3D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.09 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Kalmar FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.39 points per game from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.28 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 22W 10D 15L in their last 47 games (1.62 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 18W 13D 16L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Kalmar FF's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 2.09 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Kalmar FF
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when AIK Stockholm 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 35%, AIK Stockholm 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Kalmar FF) and 52% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 56% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 52% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Kalmar FF and AIK Stockholm drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.12 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.12 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.87 / defence 0.85, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 35% | Draw 29% | AIK Stockholm 36%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 40%, AIK Stockholm 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.62 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.