IFK Varnamo 1-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Finnvedsvallen plays host to IFK Varnamo versus Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hammarby FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.86 xG and Hammarby FF 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.692 / defence 0.903 | Hammarby FF attack 1.264 / defence 0.835. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.082. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hammarby FF have an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — the away xG of 1.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 9 IFK Varnamo games / 39 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 26% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 45%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Hammarby FF 2.22. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.09 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 26% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG IFK Varnamo 0.86 / Hammarby FF 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.692 / def 0.903 | Hammarby FF attack 1.264 / def 0.835 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Hammarby FF xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF?
IFK Varnamo 1 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 26% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Hammarby FF away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.69) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (1.26x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
26%
3.89
29%
3.41
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.09
1.24
Hammarby FF xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.2 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.24 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
Hammarby FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 0-3 on 17 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
3
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 4, Hammarby FF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when IFK Varnamo 2-3 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as IFK Varnamo defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Hammarby FF 1-0 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.86 xG and Hammarby FF 1.24 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hammarby FF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.69 / defence 0.90 against Hammarby FF attack 1.26 / defence 0.83, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 26% | Draw 29% | Hammarby FF 45%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual IFK Varnamo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.