IFK Varnamo 0-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours IFK Varnamo (35%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as IFK Varnamo face Hammarby FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Finnvedsvallen plays host to IFK Varnamo versus Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan (matchday 29). Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
IFK Varnamo have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
IFK Varnamo's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Hammarby FF's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Hammarby FF have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in IFK Varnamo's favour (2.20 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours IFK Varnamo, who have won 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against Hammarby FF — Hammarby FF have 0 wins, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 May 2023, ended IFK Varnamo 2–0 Hammarby FF — a IFK Varnamo win.
The head-to-head data gives IFK Varnamo an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
IFK Varnamo half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 52% versus Hammarby FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 50% | Hammarby FF 55%). Note also that Hammarby FF surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while IFK Varnamo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.91 xG and Hammarby FF 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.845 / defence 0.841 | Hammarby FF attack 0.809 / defence 0.742. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.229. Hammarby FF bring a tight defence (rating 0.742, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling IFK Varnamo's projected output down. Data: built from IFK Varnamo's last 58 games and Hammarby FF's last 58.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 31%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.84 | Draw 2.99 | Hammarby FF 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Hammarby FF's lower xG of 0.84 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.75 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 75% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (IFK Varnamo's last 10 home games and Hammarby FF's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IFK Varnamo 40% (last 10 home games) | Hammarby FF 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 29 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG IFK Varnamo 0.91 / Hammarby FF 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.845 / def 0.841 | Hammarby FF attack 0.809 / def 0.742 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Hammarby FF xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF FAQs
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 29) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 35% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.84) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (0.81x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from IFK Varnamo's last 58 games and Hammarby FF's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
35%
2.84
33%
2.99
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
1.75
0.84
Hammarby FF xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 14.6 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.84 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 23W 12D 23L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Hammarby FF's form line: 27W 17D 14L from 58 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for IFK Varnamo against 1.69 for Hammarby FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 1.38 PPG from their last 29 home games (11W 7D 11L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 10W 8D 11L from their last 29 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.71 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
IFK Varnamo (Home) vs Hammarby FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF Form FAQs
What form are IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 23W 12D 23L in their last 58 games (1.40 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 27W 17D 14L in their last 58 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Hammarby FF away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.38 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.31 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 27 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won IFK Varnamo 0-3 Hammarby FF on 17 Aug 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hammarby FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
3
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Varnamo have won 4, Hammarby FF have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 July 2025: IFK Varnamo 2-3 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 48%, Hammarby FF 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (IFK Varnamo) and 41% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 41%; IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 31% of games; Hammarby FF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Hammarby FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 34% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 41% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at IFK Varnamo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 29, as IFK Varnamo and Hammarby FF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.91 xG and Hammarby FF 0.84 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IFK Varnamo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.84 / defence 0.84 against Hammarby FF attack 0.81 / defence 0.74, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 33% | Hammarby FF 31%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 50%, Hammarby FF 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.40 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.