IFK Goteborg 3-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 July 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 3W 3D 4L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.00 for Mjallby AIF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 55% versus Mjallby AIF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 45% | Mjallby AIF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.41 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.902 / defence 1.088 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.958 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.165. Data: 40 IFK Goteborg games / 40 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 40% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 31%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Mjallby AIF 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 50% | Mjallby AIF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 40% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.41 / Mjallby AIF 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.902 / def 1.088 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.958 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Mjallby AIF xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
IFK Goteborg 3 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 40% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 0.90x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.96x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.44
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.62
1.21
Mjallby AIF xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.21 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 9W 19D 12L from 40 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 13L across 40 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.42 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 4W 7D 9L from 20 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 5W 6D 9L across 20 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.38 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 9W 19D 12L in their last 40 games (1.15 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 15W 12D 13L in their last 40 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 0.95 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.05 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 1-4 on 5 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 55%, Mjallby AIF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (IFK Goteborg) and 50% (Mjallby AIF).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of IFK Goteborg's games and 60% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 50% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Goteborg edge out Mjallby AIF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Mjallby AIF 3-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.41 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.21 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. IFK Goteborg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 40% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 31%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, Mjallby AIF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.15 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.