IFK Goteborg 0-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Goteborg at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 June 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 5W 1D 4L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.20 for Mjallby AIF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for IFK Goteborg, 0 for Mjallby AIF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2022, ended 4–1 with IFK Goteborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 47% versus Mjallby AIF 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 50% | Mjallby AIF 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.32 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.982 / defence 0.866 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.701 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.157. Data: 40 IFK Goteborg games / 40 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 50% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 19%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Mjallby AIF 5.26. IFK Goteborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 40% | Mjallby AIF 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 50% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.32 / Mjallby AIF 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.982 / def 0.866 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.701 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Mjallby AIF xG
38%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 50% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Goteborg 2W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 0W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 0.98x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.70x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
50%
1.98
31%
3.26
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.02
0.70
Mjallby AIF xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
5%
19.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.3 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.70 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 25W 11D 24L from 60 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 20W 21D 19L across 60 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.35 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 13W 6D 11L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 10W 10D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.12 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 25W 11D 24L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 20W 21D 19L in their last 60 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Mjallby AIF away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.50 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.33 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 1-4 on 5 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 47%, Mjallby AIF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (IFK Goteborg) and 30% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 43%; Mjallby AIF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 33% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 30% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat IFK Goteborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IFK Goteborg 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.32 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.70 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.98 / defence 0.87 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.70 / defence 0.83, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 50% | Draw 31% | Mjallby AIF 19%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Mjallby AIF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 50%, Mjallby AIF 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.43 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.