IFK Goteborg 1-3 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours IFK Goteborg (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IFK Goteborg face Helsingborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 22 as IFK Goteborg welcome Helsingborg to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Monday 12 September 2022 at 18:10 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 5W 3D 2L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
IFK Goteborg carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for IFK Goteborg, 0 for Helsingborg and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with IFK Goteborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
IFK Goteborg trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Helsingborg trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 43% versus Helsingborg 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 43% | Helsingborg 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.90 xG and Helsingborg 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.942 / defence 0.771 | Helsingborg attack 0.834 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.168. Helsingborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing IFK Goteborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. IFK Goteborg's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 IFK Goteborg games / 21 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 64% | Draw 22% | Helsingborg 14%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 1.56 | Draw 4.55 | Helsingborg 7.14. The model has a clear lean to IFK Goteborg (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Goteborg at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: IFK Goteborg 50% | Helsingborg 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 12 Sep 2022, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 64% | Draw 22% | Helsingborg 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 45% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.90 / Helsingborg 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.942 / def 0.771 | Helsingborg attack 0.834 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Helsingborg xG
45%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborg kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborg kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 12 September 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborg?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 3 Helsingborg.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborg part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 64% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Helsingborg?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Goteborg 2W | Draws 1 | Helsingborg 0W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Helsingborg in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Helsingborg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 0.94x the league average against Helsingborg's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Helsingborg's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
64%
1.56
22%
4.47
14%
7.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.65
0.75
Helsingborg xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
7.36
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
30%
3.31
2%
49.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.1 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.75 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 22W 11D 18L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg's form line: 16W 13D 22L from 51 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.51 PPG, Helsingborg on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.56 PPG from 25 outings (11W 6D 8L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 8W 7D 10L from 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.18 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 22W 11D 18L in their last 51 games (1.51 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 16W 13D 22L in their last 51 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Helsingborg away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.56 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.24 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and Helsingborg runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 September 2022, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting Helsingborg specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
1
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Helsingborg?
From 4 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 2, Helsingborg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2022, when IFK Goteborg 1-3 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Helsingborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 44%, Helsingborg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (IFK Goteborg) and 64% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Helsingborg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 56% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 64% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Helsingborg tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helsingborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat IFK Goteborg 1-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.90 xG and Helsingborg 0.75 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IFK Goteborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Helsingborg outscored their 0.75 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.94 / defence 0.77 against Helsingborg attack 0.83 / defence 1.33, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 64% | Draw 22% | Helsingborg 14%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Helsingborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 43%, Helsingborg 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Helsingborg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.51 PPG, Helsingborg 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.