IFK Goteborg 0-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 14 as IFK Goteborg welcome Hammarby FF to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of IFK Goteborg's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IFK Goteborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hammarby FF in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 26% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Goteborg 56% and Hammarby FF 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 46% | Hammarby FF 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.38 xG and Hammarby FF 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.993 / defence 1.215 | Hammarby FF attack 1.127 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.128. Data: 43 IFK Goteborg games / 43 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 32% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 40%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Hammarby FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 60% | Hammarby FF 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 32% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.38 / Hammarby FF 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.993 / def 1.215 | Hammarby FF attack 1.127 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Hammarby FF xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 32% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
32%
3.08
28%
3.61
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.92
1.54
Hammarby FF xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
7%
14.41
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.54 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 10W 19D 14L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 16W 15D 12L from 43 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.14 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.05 PPG from 21 outings (5W 7D 9L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 8W 3D 10L from 21 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.67 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF in 70%.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 10W 19D 14L in their last 43 games (1.14 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 16W 15D 12L in their last 43 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.05 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2025, when Hammarby FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
7
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, Hammarby FF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — IFK Goteborg at 62%, Hammarby FF at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for IFK Goteborg and 81% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of IFK Goteborg's games and 71% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of IFK Goteborg's matches and 81% of Hammarby FF's.
Do IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at IFK Goteborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 14, as IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.38 xG and Hammarby FF 1.54 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IFK Goteborg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.99 / defence 1.22 against Hammarby FF attack 1.13 / defence 0.94, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 32% | Draw 28% | Hammarby FF 40%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 46%, Hammarby FF 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.14 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.