IFK Goteborg 6-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to IFK Goteborg versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Thursday 4 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Goteborg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 7D 0L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.60 for Degerfors IF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IFK Goteborg lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 47% versus Degerfors IF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 50% | Degerfors IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.27 xG and Degerfors IF 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.699 / defence 0.997 | Degerfors IF attack 0.914 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.026. IFK Goteborg's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 1.27 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 IFK Goteborg games / 35 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 43% | Draw 32% | Degerfors IF 26%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Degerfors IF 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 40% | Degerfors IF 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Thursday 4 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 43% | Draw 32% | Degerfors IF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.27 / Degerfors IF 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.699 / def 0.997 | Degerfors IF attack 0.914 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Degerfors IF xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 4 May 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
IFK Goteborg 6 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 43% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF?
Record (4 meetings): IFK Goteborg 2W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 2W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Degerfors IF's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.91x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
43%
2.34
32%
3.16
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.21
0.94
Degerfors IF xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.94 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 25W 11D 24L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Degerfors IF's form line: 17W 14D 29L from 60 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.08 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.50 PPG from 30 outings (13W 6D 11L).
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 5W 7D 18L from 30 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Goteborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.10 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 25W 11D 24L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Degerfors IF away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.50 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.73 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
IFK Goteborg go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 6-0 on 4 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
IFK Goteborg
0
Draws
2
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 7, Degerfors IF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when IFK Goteborg 2-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 47%, Degerfors IF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (IFK Goteborg) and 50% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 53% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 50% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IFK Goteborg run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Degerfors IF 6-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.27 xG and Degerfors IF 0.94 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. IFK Goteborg beat their projection by 4.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Degerfors IF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.70 / defence 1.00 against Degerfors IF attack 0.91 / defence 1.19, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 43% | Draw 32% | Degerfors IF 26%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 50%, Degerfors IF 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.43 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.