IFK Goteborg 0-2 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg host BK Hacken at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Goteborg stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 6W 0D 4L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
BK Hacken — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BK Hacken's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, IFK Goteborg have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, IFK Goteborg have won 3, BK Hacken 5, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 4.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Sep 2025, ended 2–1 with IFK Goteborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IFK Goteborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
BK Hacken in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 47% versus BK Hacken 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 43% | BK Hacken 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.35 xG and BK Hacken 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.993 / defence 0.964 | BK Hacken attack 1.007 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.293. Data: 31 IFK Goteborg games / 31 BK Hacken games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 39% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 35%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | BK Hacken 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
BK Hacken lead the H2H ledger, but IFK Goteborg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, IFK Goteborg are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: IFK Goteborg 40% | BK Hacken 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 39% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.35 / BK Hacken 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.993 / def 0.964 | BK Hacken attack 1.007 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
BK Hacken xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 2 BK Hacken.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken part of?
IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 39% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken?
Record (9 meetings): IFK Goteborg 3W | Draws 1 | BK Hacken 5W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from IFK Goteborg's attack rating (0.99) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
39%
2.55
26%
3.80
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.61
1.26
BK Hacken xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
11%
8.97
9%
11.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.26 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 23W 13D 24L from 60 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 25L across 60 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.37 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 10W 7D 13L from 30 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 11W 7D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.60 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or BK Hacken away?
BK Hacken's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.23 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.33 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when BK Hacken won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
6
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 3, BK Hacken have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-2 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 50%, BK Hacken 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (IFK Goteborg) and 60% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: BK Hacken in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 43% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 60% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat IFK Goteborg 0-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.35 xG and BK Hacken 1.26 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IFK Goteborg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.99 / defence 0.96 against BK Hacken attack 1.01 / defence 1.01, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 39% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 35%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual BK Hacken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 43%, BK Hacken 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.37 PPG, BK Hacken 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.