IF Elfsborg 3-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Vasteras SK FK travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 August 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Elfsborg stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Borås Arena, IF Elfsborg have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasteras SK FK away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IF Elfsborg at 1.30 PPG versus Vasteras SK FK's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for IF Elfsborg, 0 for Vasteras SK FK and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 54% versus Vasteras SK FK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 56% | Vasteras SK FK 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.92 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 0.917 / defence 0.984 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.855 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.344. Vasteras SK FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 IF Elfsborg games / 16 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 54% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 20%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Vasteras SK FK 5.00. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 70% | Vasteras SK FK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Friday 14 Aug 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 54% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.92 / Vasteras SK FK 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 0.917 / def 0.984 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.855 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Vasteras SK FK xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 14 August 2026 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
IF Elfsborg 3 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 54% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (3 meetings): IF Elfsborg 2W | Draws 1 | Vasteras SK FK 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 0.92x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.92
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.05
1.13
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
3%
33.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.13 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 18W 10D 18L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 27W 9D 10L from 46 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Vasteras SK FK are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IF Elfsborg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L).
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 13W 2D 8L from 23 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.89 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 18W 10D 18L in their last 46 games (1.39 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 27W 9D 10L in their last 46 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.57 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.78 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2026, when IF Elfsborg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
0
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK?
From 4 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 3, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when IF Elfsborg 3-0 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 65%, Vasteras SK FK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for IF Elfsborg and 70% for Vasteras SK FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of IF Elfsborg's games and 52% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 70% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Vasteras SK FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Vasteras SK FK 3-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.92 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.13 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vasteras SK FK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 0.92 / defence 0.98 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.85 / defence 1.30, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 54% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 20%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 56%, Vasteras SK FK 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with IF Elfsborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.