IF Elfsborg 4-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 11 as IF Elfsborg welcome Varbergs BoIS FC to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 June 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Borås Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Varbergs BoIS FC stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, IF Elfsborg have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for IF Elfsborg, 0 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 55% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 57% | Varbergs BoIS FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.77 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.143 / defence 0.977 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.847 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.133. Data: 40 IF Elfsborg games / 40 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 57% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 20%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Varbergs BoIS FC 5.00. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 40% | Varbergs BoIS FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jun 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 57% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.77 / Varbergs BoIS FC 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.143 / def 0.977 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.847 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 June 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
IF Elfsborg 4 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 57% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (4 meetings): IF Elfsborg 1W | Draws 3 | Varbergs BoIS FC 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IF Elfsborg's attack rating (1.14) and Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
57%
1.76
23%
4.27
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.71
0.94
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
3%
29.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.94 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 29W 19D 12L from 60 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Varbergs BoIS FC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 17D 24L across 60 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Varbergs BoIS FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 14W 11D 5L from 30 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record stands at 7W 9D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 29W 19D 12L in their last 60 games (1.77 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.77 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.00 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jun 2022, when IF Elfsborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
4
Draws
0
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 October 2023, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 57%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (IF Elfsborg) and 57% (Varbergs BoIS FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Varbergs BoIS FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of IF Elfsborg's games and 57% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 57% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Varbergs BoIS FC 4-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.77 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.94 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.14 / defence 0.98 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 57% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 20%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 57%, Varbergs BoIS FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.