IF Elfsborg 3-0 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Sirius meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
IF Elfsborg (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 5W 4D 1L at Borås Arena — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sirius have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: IF Elfsborg 1W, Sirius 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Sirius winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sirius — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 52% versus Sirius 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 56% | Sirius 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.25 xG and Sirius 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.390 / defence 1.222 | Sirius attack 0.854 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.182. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.390 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 IF Elfsborg games / 52 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 60% | Draw 21% | Sirius 20%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Sirius 5.00. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 80% | Sirius 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 60% | Draw 21% | Sirius 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 64% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.25 / Sirius 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.390 / def 1.222 | Sirius attack 0.854 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Sirius xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Sirius kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
IF Elfsborg 3 - 0 Sirius.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 60% chance of winning, Sirius a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
Record (2 meetings): IF Elfsborg 1W | Draws 0 | Sirius 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Sirius in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Sirius (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IF Elfsborg's attack rating (1.39) and Sirius's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.85x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.87
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.48
1.23
Sirius xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
11%
9.49
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
2%
48.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.23 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 24W 13D 15L from 52 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 24L across 52 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sirius heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 13W 7D 5L from 25 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 5W 8D 12L across 25 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.17 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Sirius in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 24W 13D 15L in their last 52 games (1.63 PPG), while Sirius have gone 17W 11D 24L in their last 52 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Sirius away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.84 PPG; Sirius away: 0.92 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sirius in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sirius have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-0 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
IF Elfsborg
0
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 6, Sirius have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 56%, Sirius 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for IF Elfsborg and 64% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sirius in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of IF Elfsborg's games and 56% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 64% of Sirius's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Sirius tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sirius in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Sirius 3-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.25 xG and Sirius 1.23 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sirius landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.39 / defence 1.22 against Sirius attack 0.85 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 60% | Draw 21% | Sirius 20%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 56%, Sirius 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sirius's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.