IF Elfsborg 3-0 Sirius – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Sirius meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
IF Elfsborg (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 6W 2D 2L at Borås Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sirius have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (53 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sirius — key trading statistics (53 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 55% versus Sirius 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 55% | Sirius 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.03 xG and Sirius 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.087 / defence 0.968 | Sirius attack 0.944 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.070. Sirius bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 IF Elfsborg games / 53 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 61% | Draw 23% | Sirius 17%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Sirius 5.88. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 50% | Sirius 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 61% | Draw 23% | Sirius 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.03 / Sirius 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.087 / def 0.968 | Sirius attack 0.944 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Sirius xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Sirius kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
IF Elfsborg 3 - 0 Sirius.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 61% chance of winning, Sirius a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Sirius in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Sirius (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IF Elfsborg's attack rating (1.09) and Sirius's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.94x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
61%
1.65
23%
4.40
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.01
0.98
Sirius xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
2%
45.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.98 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 25W 18D 10L from 53 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 19L across 53 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sirius heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 13W 10D 4L from 27 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 6W 10D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.30 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Sirius in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 25W 18D 10L in their last 53 games (1.75 PPG), while Sirius have gone 17W 17D 19L in their last 53 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Sirius away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.81 PPG; Sirius away: 1.04 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sirius in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sirius have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-0 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
IF Elfsborg
0
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 6, Sirius have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 59%, Sirius 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (IF Elfsborg) and 56% (Sirius). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of IF Elfsborg's games and 63% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 56% of Sirius's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Sirius tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sirius in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Sirius.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Sirius 3-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.03 xG and Sirius 0.98 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sirius landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Sirius attack 0.94 / defence 1.23, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 61% | Draw 23% | Sirius 17%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 55%, Sirius 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (53 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sirius's trading profile (53 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.