IF Elfsborg 1-0 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus IFK Goteborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 1 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
IF Elfsborg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IFK Goteborg have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in IF Elfsborg's favour (1.70 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
IFK Goteborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 57% versus IFK Goteborg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 55% | IFK Goteborg 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.09 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.174 / defence 1.067 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.063 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.073. IFK Goteborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 IF Elfsborg games / 51 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 56% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 20%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | IFK Goteborg 5.00. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 50% | IFK Goteborg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 56% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.09 / IFK Goteborg 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.174 / def 1.067 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.063 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.22
IFK Goteborg xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 0 IFK Goteborg.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg part of?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 56% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.17x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (1.06x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
56%
1.79
24%
4.12
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.31
1.22
IFK Goteborg xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
2%
40.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.22 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 23W 18D 10L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 12W 20D 19L from 51 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Goteborg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.80 PPG from 25 outings (12W 9D 4L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 6W 12D 7L from 25 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.16 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 23W 18D 10L in their last 51 games (1.71 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 12W 20D 19L in their last 51 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.80 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.20 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
IF Elfsborg go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 8, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 60%, IFK Goteborg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (IF Elfsborg) and 48% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg in 32%; IFK Goteborg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play IFK Goteborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of IF Elfsborg's games and 56% of IFK Goteborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 48% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out IFK Goteborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat IFK Goteborg 1-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.09 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.22 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IF Elfsborg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. IFK Goteborg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.17 / defence 1.07 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.06 / defence 1.22, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 56% | Draw 24% | IFK Goteborg 20%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 55%, IFK Goteborg 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.