IF Elfsborg 4-3 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 9 as IF Elfsborg welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Thursday 15 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Borås Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (IF Elfsborg) versus 0.90 (IF Brommapojkarna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IF Elfsborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: IF Elfsborg have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while IF Brommapojkarna have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both IF Elfsborg and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 52% versus IF Brommapojkarna 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 62% | IF Brommapojkarna 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.71 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.375 / defence 0.906 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.097 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.360. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 IF Elfsborg games / 37 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 46% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 30%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | IF Brommapojkarna 3.33. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 60% | IF Brommapojkarna 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 15 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 46% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.71 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.375 / def 0.906 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.097 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
IF Brommapojkarna xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 15 May 2025 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Elfsborg 4 - 3 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 46% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (4 meetings): IF Elfsborg 3W | Draws 1 | IF Brommapojkarna 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.18
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.07
1.35
IF Brommapojkarna xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
5%
18.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.35 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 60 games, going 33W 10D 17L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D.
On the other side, IF Brommapojkarna sit at 1.18 PPG from 60 outings (19W 14D 27L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-L across their last five.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of IF Brommapojkarna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 19W 6D 5L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Brommapojkarna have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.52 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna in 60%.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 33W 10D 17L in their last 60 games (1.82 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.10 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.20 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or IF Brommapojkarna been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, IF Brommapojkarna in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when IF Elfsborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 8 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 5, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 53%, IF Brommapojkarna 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for IF Elfsborg and 63% for IF Brommapojkarna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of IF Elfsborg's games and 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out IF Brommapojkarna 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat IF Brommapojkarna 4-3 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.71 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.35 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 1.35 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.38 / defence 0.91 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.10 / defence 0.90, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 46% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 30%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 62%, IF Brommapojkarna 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.