IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees BK Hacken travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Monday 21 September 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Borås Arena, IF Elfsborg have gone 3W 5D 1L this season (9 games, 1.56 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's away record: 3W 4D 2L from 9 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.44 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. BK Hacken are 0.50 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IF Elfsborg register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, BK Hacken in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
IF Elfsborg in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 63% versus BK Hacken 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 53% | BK Hacken 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.52 xG and BK Hacken 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.216 / defence 1.289 | BK Hacken attack 0.864 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.126 / away 1.399. Data: 20 IF Elfsborg games / 19 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 35% | Draw 28% | BK Hacken 37%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | BK Hacken 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 67% | BK Hacken 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 21 Sep 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 35% | Draw 28% | BK Hacken 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 64% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.52 / BK Hacken 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.216 / def 1.289 | BK Hacken attack 0.864 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.126 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.56
BK Hacken xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 21 September 2020 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken part of?
IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 35% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. BK Hacken (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IF Elfsborg's attack rating (1.22) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
35%
2.85
28%
3.55
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.08
1.56
BK Hacken xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
21%
4.75
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
7%
13.53
8%
12.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.56 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 7W 10D 2L from 19 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 3L across 19 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.63 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 3W 5D 1L from 9 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 3W 4D 2L across 9 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.68 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: BK Hacken in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 7W 10D 2L in their last 19 games (1.63 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 9W 7D 3L in their last 19 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or BK Hacken away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.56 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.44 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IF Elfsborg
3
Draws
4
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 3, BK Hacken have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
BK Hacken see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — IF Elfsborg at 67%, BK Hacken at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (IF Elfsborg) and 56% (BK Hacken). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BK Hacken in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of IF Elfsborg's games and 67% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 56% of BK Hacken's.
Do IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken finished level at 1-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.52 xG and BK Hacken 1.56 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.22 / defence 1.29 against BK Hacken attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 35% | Draw 28% | BK Hacken 37%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 53%, BK Hacken 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
BK Hacken's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.63 PPG, BK Hacken 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.