IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sirius (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IF Brommapojkarna face Sirius.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 12 as IF Brommapojkarna welcome Sirius to Grimsta IP. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 July 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's home record at Grimsta IP: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Grimsta IP this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sirius's 2.60 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of IF Brommapojkarna's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IF Brommapojkarna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sirius in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sirius, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for IF Brommapojkarna.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 2–4 with Sirius winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sirius have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sirius in-play and half-time data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Brommapojkarna 54% and Sirius 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 54% | Sirius 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.28 xG and Sirius 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.869 / defence 0.978 | Sirius attack 1.318 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.469. Sirius have an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 IF Brommapojkarna games / 41 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 25% | Draw 24% | Sirius 51%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Sirius 1.96. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | Sirius 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 25% | Draw 24% | Sirius 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.28 / Sirius 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.869 / def 0.978 | Sirius attack 1.318 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.469 • Poisson stance: Sirius (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Sirius xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 12 July 2026 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius?
IF Brommapojkarna 1 - 2 Sirius.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 25% chance of winning, Sirius a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius?
Record (6 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 1W | Draws 1 | Sirius 4W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Sirius (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
25%
4.01
24%
4.14
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
3.17
1.89
Sirius xG
4.01
25%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
15%
6.63
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
4%
26.57
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.89 for Sirius, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, IF Brommapojkarna have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 13W 8D 20L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius's form line: 20W 8D 13L from 41 games, 1.66 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sirius are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IF Brommapojkarna.
Venue Form
On home soil, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 0.89 PPG from 19 outings (5W 2D 12L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 7W 5D 7L from 19 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 2.05 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 73%.
Last 41 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 13W 8D 20L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Sirius have gone 20W 8D 13L in their last 41 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Sirius away?
Sirius's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 0.89 PPG; Sirius away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 10 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
2
Draws
5
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius?
From 8 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, Sirius have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2026, when Sirius 2-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — IF Brommapojkarna at 53%, Sirius at 84%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for IF Brommapojkarna and 79% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 84% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 79% of Sirius's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Sirius in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sirius edge out IF Brommapojkarna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.28 xG and Sirius 1.89 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.87 / defence 0.98 against Sirius attack 1.32 / defence 0.86, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 25% | Draw 24% | Sirius 51%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 54%, Sirius 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sirius arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.