Helsingborg 1-0 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs IF Elfsborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees IF Elfsborg travel to Olympia to take on Helsingborg. The game is scheduled for Thursday 21 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helsingborg — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Helsingborg have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Olympia, Helsingborg have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. IF Elfsborg are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Helsingborg, 1 for IF Elfsborg and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2020, ended 1–2 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Helsingborg trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 56% versus IF Elfsborg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 50% | IF Elfsborg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 0.92 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.728 / defence 1.097 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.121 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.045. Helsingborg's attack strength of 0.728 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Helsingborg games / 33 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 27% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 45%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | IF Elfsborg 2.22. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 40% | IF Elfsborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 27% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Helsingborg 0.92 / IF Elfsborg 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.728 / def 1.097 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.121 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.28
IF Elfsborg xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Helsingborg vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 21 April 2022 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Helsingborg 1 - 0 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Helsingborg vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Helsingborg vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 27% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Helsingborg and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and IF Elfsborg?
Record (2 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 1 | IF Elfsborg 1W.
What form are Helsingborg and IF Elfsborg in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Helsingborg's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
27%
3.74
28%
3.52
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.21
1.28
IF Elfsborg xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
7%
13.53
18%
5.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.28 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helsingborg's recent record stands at 6W 11D 15L from 32 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Helsingborg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 17W 6D 9L across 32 games — 1.78 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Helsingborg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Helsingborg have managed 3W 6D 7L from 16 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 9W 2D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.69 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Early Season
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 6W 11D 15L in their last 32 games (0.91 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 17W 6D 9L in their last 32 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 0.94 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helsingborg and IF Elfsborg runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2022, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2022, when IF Elfsborg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helsingborg's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Helsingborg
1
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and IF Elfsborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 1, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2022, when IF Elfsborg 3-0 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 38%, IF Elfsborg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Helsingborg) and 56% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 38%; Helsingborg have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 50% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Helsingborg's recent games and 56% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Helsingborg defy the odds to beat IF Elfsborg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat IF Elfsborg 1-0 at Olympia, Regular Season - 4, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 0.92 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.28 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IF Elfsborg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.73 / defence 1.10 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.12 / defence 0.93, drawn from 3/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 27% | Draw 28% | IF Elfsborg 45%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Helsingborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 50%, IF Elfsborg 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Helsingborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Helsingborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.