Hammarby FF 4-3 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hammarby FF face Ostersunds FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 24 as Hammarby FF welcome Ostersunds FK to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Hammarby FF are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hammarby FF, 0 for Ostersunds FK and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Ostersunds FK in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 66% versus Ostersunds FK 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 60% | Ostersunds FK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.16 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.139 / defence 0.800 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.620 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.070. Ostersunds FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Hammarby FF games / 53 Ostersunds FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 74% | Draw 19% | Ostersunds FK 7%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.35 | Draw 5.26 | Ostersunds FK 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (74%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 60% | Ostersunds FK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 74% | Draw 19% | Ostersunds FK 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 37% | xG Hammarby FF 2.16 / Ostersunds FK 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.139 / def 0.800 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.620 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Ostersunds FK xG
37%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Hammarby FF 4 - 3 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 74% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 7% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK?
Record (3 meetings): Hammarby FF 2W | Draws 1 | Ostersunds FK 0W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.16. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 3-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
74%
1.34
19%
5.39
7%
14.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
3 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.69
0.53
Ostersunds FK xG
1.34
74%
Home win
5.39
19%
Draw
14.33
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
59%
1.70
12%
8.69
Win to Nil
44%
2.28
1%
124.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 7.8 | 2.1 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.8 | 8.4 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.53 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hammarby FF come into this having played 53 games, going 20W 18D 15L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ostersunds FK sit at 0.87 PPG from 53 outings (11W 13D 29L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hammarby FF's home form reads 11W 12D 3L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Ostersunds FK have taken 1.00 points per game from 26 outings (6W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.89 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Ostersunds FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 20W 18D 15L in their last 53 games (1.47 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 11W 13D 29L in their last 53 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.73 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hammarby FF
1
Draws
0
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2021, when Hammarby FF 4-3 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 62%, Ostersunds FK 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Hammarby FF) and 42% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 35% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 42% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out Ostersunds FK 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Ostersunds FK 4-3 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.16 xG and Ostersunds FK 0.53 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ostersunds FK outscored their 0.53 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.14 / defence 0.80 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.62 / defence 1.25, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 74% | Draw 19% | Ostersunds FK 7%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 60%, Ostersunds FK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.