Hammarby FF 2-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 1 as Hammarby FF welcome Ostersunds FK to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 June 2020 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 0.46 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.474 / away 1.359. Data: 0 Hammarby FF games / 0 Ostersunds FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 13% | Draw 29% | Ostersunds FK 58%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 7.69 | Draw 3.45 | Ostersunds FK 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Ostersunds FK (58%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Hammarby FF's lower xG of 0.46 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ostersunds FK at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jun 2020, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 13% | Draw 29% | Ostersunds FK 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 27% | xG Hammarby FF 0.46 / Ostersunds FK 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.474 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.46
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Ostersunds FK xG
27%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 14 June 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Hammarby FF 2 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 13% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 58% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.46. The same calculation in reverse, Ostersunds FK's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 20.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (18.0%), 0-2 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
13%
7.75
29%
3.49
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
22.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
0 – 2
14.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.46
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
1.79
1.33
Ostersunds FK xG
7.75
13%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.67
73%
BTTS No
1.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
63%
1.59
Win to Nil
3%
29.23
37%
2.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 22.1 | 14.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.8%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 0.46 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.33 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Pre-Season
Ostersunds FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Ostersunds FK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hammarby FF
1
Draws
0
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK?
From 4 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 3, Ostersunds FK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2021, when Hammarby FF 4-3 Ostersunds FK.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Ostersunds FK?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ostersunds FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Ostersunds FK 2-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 0.46 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.33 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ostersunds FK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 13% | Draw 29% | Ostersunds FK 58%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Hammarby FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.