Hammarby FF 1-3 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tele2 Arena plays host to Hammarby FF versus Malmo FF in Allsvenskan (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Hammarby FF (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Hammarby FF at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Malmo FF have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Hammarby FF's favour (2.20 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Malmo FF edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended Hammarby FF 2–4 Malmo FF — a Malmo FF win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Malmo FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 46% versus Malmo FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 56% | Malmo FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.56 xG and Malmo FF 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.265 / defence 0.928 | Malmo FF attack 1.058 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.242. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack rating of 1.265 — their 1.56 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Hammarby FF's last 52 games and Malmo FF's last 52.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 45% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 30%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.21 | Draw 4.01 | Malmo FF 3.36. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hammarby FF's last 10 home games and Malmo FF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hammarby FF 60% (last 10 home games) | Malmo FF 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 23 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 45% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Hammarby FF 1.56 / Malmo FF 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.265 / def 0.928 | Malmo FF attack 1.058 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Malmo FF xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF FAQs
What time does Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Hammarby FF 1 - 3 Malmo FF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 23) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 45% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hammarby FF and Malmo FF will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Malmo FF's attack (1.06x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from Hammarby FF's last 52 games and Malmo FF's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
45%
2.21
25%
4.01
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.78
1.22
Malmo FF xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
6%
16.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.22 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 26W 13D 13L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Malmo FF's form line: 27W 11D 14L from 52 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Hammarby FF against 1.77 for Malmo FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.28 PPG from their last 25 home games (17W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 11W 4D 10L from their last 25 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 1.73 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Malmo FF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
Hammarby FF (Home) vs Malmo FF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hammarby FF
Blended
Malmo FF
Blended
❓ Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF Form FAQs
What form are Hammarby FF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 26W 13D 13L in their last 52 games (1.75 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 27W 11D 14L in their last 52 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Malmo FF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.28 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won Hammarby FF 4-1 Malmo FF on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Malmo FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
3
Draws
3
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Malmo FF?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Hammarby FF have won 4, Malmo FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Malmo FF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Malmo FF 1-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Malmo FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 56%, Malmo FF 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Hammarby FF and 52% for Malmo FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Malmo FF in 36%; Malmo FF in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hammarby FF vs Malmo FF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hammarby FF and Malmo FF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 44% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hammarby FF and Malmo FF matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Hammarby FF's matches and 52% of Malmo FF's.
Do Hammarby FF and Malmo FF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 72% of Malmo FF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Malmo FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Hammarby FF 1-3 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.56 xG and Malmo FF 1.22 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Malmo FF outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.26 / defence 0.93 against Malmo FF attack 1.06 / defence 0.81, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 45% | Draw 25% | Malmo FF 30%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Malmo FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 56%, Malmo FF 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Malmo FF's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.75 PPG, Malmo FF 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Malmo FF win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.