Hammarby FF 1-2 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 84% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tele2 Arena plays host to Hammarby FF versus IFK Varnamo in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Sunday 31 July 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hammarby FF have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Tele2 Arena this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
IFK Varnamo's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Hammarby FF's favour (1.50 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Hammarby FF 0W, IFK Varnamo 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 0–1 with IFK Varnamo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Hammarby FF half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
IFK Varnamo half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 51% versus IFK Varnamo 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 56% | IFK Varnamo 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 3.13 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.441 / defence 0.812 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.770 / defence 1.494. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.117. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.441 — their λ of 3.13 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.494 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Hammarby FF games / 15 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 84% | Draw 11% | IFK Varnamo 5%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.19 | Draw 9.09 | IFK Varnamo 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (84%) — a 79pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 84% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 50% | IFK Varnamo 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 84% | Draw 11% | IFK Varnamo 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 48% | xG Hammarby FF 3.13 / IFK Varnamo 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.441 / def 0.812 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.770 / def 1.494 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (84%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.13
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.70
IFK Varnamo xG
48%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 31 July 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Hammarby FF 1 - 2 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 84% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 5% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo?
Record (1 meetings): Hammarby FF 0W | Draws 0 | IFK Varnamo 1W.
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.44) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (1.49), the model arrives at 3.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (0.77x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 45/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 4-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
84%
1.18
11%
9.43
5%
20.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
4 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.13
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.83
0.70
IFK Varnamo xG
1.18
84%
Home win
9.43
11%
Draw
20.08
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
4%
22.99
Win to Nil
42%
2.38
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 3.13 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.70 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 84%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 24W 11D 10L from 45 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 15L across 45 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.84 PPG for Hammarby FF against 1.60 for IFK Varnamo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 16W 6D 1L from 23 games — 2.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.84 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 8W 4D 11L across 23 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.29 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; IFK Varnamo in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 24W 11D 10L in their last 45 games (1.84 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 21W 9D 15L in their last 45 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.35 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 0-3 on 17 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hammarby FF
1
Draws
4
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 3, IFK Varnamo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when IFK Varnamo 2-3 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 56%, IFK Varnamo 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Hammarby FF) and 52% (IFK Varnamo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 44% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Hammarby FF's matches and 52% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Varnamo defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Hammarby FF 1-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 3.13 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.70 xG, a combined 3.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hammarby FF fell 2.1 short of their projected output. IFK Varnamo outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.44 / defence 0.81 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.77 / defence 1.49, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 84% | Draw 11% | IFK Varnamo 5%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 84%. Instead the game produced a IFK Varnamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 5% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 56%, IFK Varnamo 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.84 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.