Hammarby FF 0-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees IFK Norrkoping travel to Tele2 Arena to take on Hammarby FF. The game is scheduled for Monday 30 November 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena this season: 2W 8D 0L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Norrkoping have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hammarby FF at 1.60 PPG versus IFK Norrkoping's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
IFK Norrkoping trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hammarby FF 68% and IFK Norrkoping 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hammarby FF 68% | IFK Norrkoping 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.84 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.158 / defence 1.181 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.093 / defence 1.398. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 1.378. IFK Norrkoping bring a strong defensive rating of 1.398 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Hammarby FF games / 28 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 39% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 37%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | IFK Norrkoping 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 90% | IFK Norrkoping 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 30 Nov 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 39% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 71% | xG Hammarby FF 1.84 / IFK Norrkoping 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.158 / def 1.181 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.093 / def 1.398 | league avg home 1.139 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.78
IFK Norrkoping xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 30 November 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Hammarby FF 0 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 39% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 1.16x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Norrkoping's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
39%
2.54
24%
4.18
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.62
1.78
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
17%
5.92
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
7%
15.05
6%
17.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.8 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.78 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 10W 11D 7L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 12W 7D 9L from 28 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.46 PPG, IFK Norrkoping on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 1.50 PPG from 14 outings (4W 9D 1L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 6W 2D 6L from 14 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; IFK Norrkoping in 79%.
Last 28 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 10W 11D 7L in their last 28 games (1.46 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 12W 7D 9L in their last 28 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.50 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 10 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IFK Norrkoping specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
3
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 5, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 0-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hammarby FF at 64%, IFK Norrkoping at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Hammarby FF and 79% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Hammarby FF's games and 86% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Hammarby FF's matches and 79% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Hammarby FF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Norrkoping defy the odds to beat Hammarby FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Hammarby FF 0-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.84 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.78 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hammarby FF fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.16 / defence 1.18 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.09 / defence 1.40, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 39% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 37%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual IFK Norrkoping win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 68%, IFK Norrkoping 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.46 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.