Hammarby FF 2-2 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 7 as Hammarby FF welcome Djurgardens IF to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 May 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Hammarby FF) versus 1.60 (Djurgardens IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hammarby FF register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Djurgardens IF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Djurgardens IF trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hammarby FF 67% and Djurgardens IF 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 67% | Djurgardens IF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.53 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.218 / defence 1.033 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.118 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.099. Data: 36 Hammarby FF games / 36 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 41% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 30%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Djurgardens IF 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 80% | Djurgardens IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 41% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Hammarby FF 1.53 / Djurgardens IF 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.218 / def 1.033 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.118 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Djurgardens IF xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 16 May 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Hammarby FF 2 - 2 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 41% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.22) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
41%
2.41
29%
3.47
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.80
1.27
Djurgardens IF xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
6%
15.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.27 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 10W 11D 9L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 14W 6D 10L from 30 games, 1.60 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.37 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (4W 9D 2L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 7W 2D 6L from 15 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.60 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 10W 11D 9L in their last 30 games (1.37 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.40 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Djurgardens IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
4
Draws
2
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, Djurgardens IF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 60%, Djurgardens IF 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hammarby FF) and 53% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 47% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 53% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF finished level at 2-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.53 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.27 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.22 / defence 1.03 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.12 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 41% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 30%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 67%, Djurgardens IF 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.37 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.