Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 23 as Hammarby FF welcome Djurgardens IF to 3Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF at 3Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at 3Arena. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at 3Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Hammarby FF) versus 2.20 (Djurgardens IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Hammarby FF, 2 for Djurgardens IF and 4 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Djurgardens IF trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 49% versus Djurgardens IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 57% | Djurgardens IF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.47 xG and Djurgardens IF 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.487 / defence 0.629 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.134 / defence 0.623. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.316. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.487 — their λ of 1.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.623 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Hammarby FF's defence rating of 0.629 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Hammarby FF games / 49 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 48% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 23%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Djurgardens IF 4.35. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 40% | Djurgardens IF 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 48% | Draw 29% | Djurgardens IF 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Hammarby FF 1.47 / Djurgardens IF 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.487 / def 0.629 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.134 / def 0.623 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Djurgardens IF xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 3Arena.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 48% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (10 meetings): Hammarby FF 4W | Draws 4 | Djurgardens IF 2W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.49) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (0.62), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
48%
2.06
29%
3.51
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.41
0.94
Djurgardens IF xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
5%
18.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.94 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 30W 8D 11L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 24W 12D 13L from 49 games, 1.71 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 2.00 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 2.46 PPG from 24 outings (19W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 13W 4D 7L from 24 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.94 scored and 1.04 conceded. Djurgardens IF's attacking output running into Hammarby FF's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Djurgardens IF in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 30W 8D 11L in their last 49 games (2.00 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 24W 12D 13L in their last 49 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.46 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Djurgardens IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
4
Draws
2
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, Djurgardens IF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 42%, Djurgardens IF 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Hammarby FF) and 42% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 42%; Djurgardens IF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 38% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 42% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.