Halmstad 1-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Halmstad take on Varbergs BoIS FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Varbergs BoIS FC travel to Örjans Vall to take on Halmstad. The game is scheduled for Monday 19 July 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Halmstad stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Halmstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Halmstad's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 0L across 5 games at Örjans Vall this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Örjans Vall.
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Halmstad 1.10 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Halmstad in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Halmstad 50% and Varbergs BoIS FC 90% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 20% | Varbergs BoIS FC 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 0.97 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.610 / defence 0.816 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.040 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.165. Halmstad's attack strength of 0.610 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Halmstad games / 40 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 32% | Draw 34% | Varbergs BoIS FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Halmstad 40% | Varbergs BoIS FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 32% | Draw 34% | Varbergs BoIS FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Halmstad 0.97 / Varbergs BoIS FC 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.610 / def 0.816 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.040 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Halmstad vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 19 July 2021 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Halmstad 1 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Halmstad vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Halmstad vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 32% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Halmstad and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Varbergs BoIS FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Halmstad and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Halmstad (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Halmstad's attack rating (0.61) and Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Halmstad's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.08
34%
2.92
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Halmstad xG
Total xG
1.96
0.99
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
3.08
32%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 13.9 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Halmstad and 0.99 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 10 outings, Halmstad have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 2W 5D 3L record — D-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Halmstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games, 0.80 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Halmstad on 1.10 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Halmstad have posted 1.40 PPG from 5 outings (1W 4D 0L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Halmstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Halmstad are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC in 90%.
Last 10 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 games (1.10 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Halmstad's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.40 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Halmstad or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Halmstad have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Halmstad and Varbergs BoIS FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jul 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Halmstad's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Halmstad
1
Draws
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 1, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2023, when Halmstad 0-5 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Halmstad see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 40%, Varbergs BoIS FC 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Halmstad) and 80% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Halmstad have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Halmstad's games and 80% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Halmstad vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Halmstad's recent games and 80% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Halmstad and Varbergs BoIS FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Halmstad and Varbergs BoIS FC finished level at 1-1 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 0.97 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 0.99 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.61 / defence 0.82 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.07, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 32% | Draw 34% | Varbergs BoIS FC 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 20%, Varbergs BoIS FC 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 90% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.10 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.